There has most certainly been a change in the weather to more normal January temperatures. There doesn't appear to be anything worse than we might expect in January in the weather model output but there are some distinct differences in the forecasts as can be seen below.
The top forecast is from the GFS model and it doesn't forecast any below 0°C (32.0°F) temperatures before the 26th of the month. The bottom forecast uses the GEM model output and it is going for a much colder forecast over the next 10 days. Friday morning's actual temperature fell to -2.8°C (27.0°F) more in line with that GEM forecast. I'll keep a note and see which forecast is more accurate by the end of the month.
A couple of days ago I noticed a rose in the front border had a bud. I thought it must be left over from summer and didn't give it any chance of opening up. Wrong!
It managed to open up before the colder weather arrived.
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Oh, those meteograms, so "cute". I tried your GFS link and that didn't work (no data) (Thank you.) and about 10 others from Google. I really like yours and will keep on searching. Rose is pretty, too. None blooming here.
ReplyDeleteThey are very "cute" but knowing which one will most accurate is the challenge. To be honest as you would expect it varies with neither one been more consistent. I can usually judge if it will be wet, cold, mild or windy though. At the moment all the models seem to be struggling with our current weather pattern.
DeleteTry this link to see if it works.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=134197&model=gfs&var=93&run=6&lid=OP&bw=
It works! Thank you so much. See the new post about it:
Deletehttps://janestrong.blogspot.com/2019/01/meteograms-and-almanac-for-saturday.html
From today's data you already have a winner... but it will be interesting to see over time.
ReplyDeleteI've just checked out how that "winner" has changed its forecast overnight. On Saturday morning it's forecasting a low of around -11.3°C on Sunday 27th! I'm hoping it's not the winner. Shows how difficult it is to compare forecast though.
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